2. The SuPurb Today

Without a picture of where we are, it is hard to understand how to get where we want to go. The development of the SuPurb plan starts with an inventory and analysis of those items that affect current and future development patterns, including land use/housing, transportation, urban design, market conditions, implementation framework, and community-driven support. This process will provide an important basis for recommendations that promote a pedestrian-friendly environment and multiple transportation choices.

Several techniques were used to establish baseline conditions. The project team inventoried market conditions, existing land use including underutilized parcels and infill opportunities, transportation, urban design form, existing organizations, and policies that may impact future conditions. Community participation, which occurred throughout the planning process, was also useful in identifying specific issues and opportunities within the study area. A full description of the participatory program is included in Appendix A.

2.1 Economic/Demographic Overview

A market analysis was completed in 2003 as part of the RoadMap planning process. The following economic/demographic overview reiterates relative key elements from that analysis and expands on that effort by providing information relative specifically to the core area. A key component of the update is results of a market survey, undertaken specifically to engage area employees, Kennesaw State University students, and residents in the process.

2.1.1 Core Analysis and the Favored Quarter

Employment growth in the Atlanta metropolitan statistical area (MSA) has occurred largely in the MSA’s “favored quarter.” The favored quarter is defined as the radiating quarter of an MSA where the bulk of the executive housing and white-collar jobs are located, and where the largest portion of new housing growth, both executive and more affordable, is developed. Atlanta’s favored quarter, shown on the figure on the following page, largely equates to the locally named Golden Triangle, the area north of downtown between I-75 and I-85 and anchored by Georgia 400 and the Chattahoochee River. Over the past 10 years, nearly 80 percent of the region’s job growth has occurred within the favored quarter, while only 54 percent of the region’s population growth occurred in this area, pointing to a significantly worsening gulf between where Atlanta’s population live and work. This widening gulf is contributing significantly to Atlanta’s traffic congestion and has fueled demand for housing closer to employment, especially close to the larger employment nodes such as the Town Center area.

Figure 2. Atlanta’s Favored Quarter and Metro Cores

Atlanta’s growth has been an evolution of the development of urban cores and “activity centers” radiating out from the central city. Metro cores are concentrations of employment and regional activity and have evolved as the metropolitan area continues to grow. Atlanta’s largest metro cores include Downtown, Midtown, Buckhead, Central Perimeter, and Cumberland-Galleria. These latter three cores are examples of third generation cores, cores that were largely founded in the 1970s and evolved into major employment and activity concentrations in the 1990s. These cores, which dominated office growth in the 1980s, have since seen gradual declines in their capture of new office and retail demand, losing share to newer fourth generation cores located farther out. As new housing, particularly executive housing, moved farther from the central city, retail and then employment followed, creating fourth generation cores such as Town Center. Most of Atlanta’s fourth generation cores have evolved around malls that created the hub for activity. Currently, the strongest example of a fourth generation core in Atlanta is the Georgia 400 north corridor in North Fulton, which accounted for close to half of the region’s office growth in the latter half of the 1990s.

2.1.2 Evolution of Retail Cores

Over the past several decades, the Atlanta area, including Cobb County, has experienced almost continuous sprawling residential growth. Attracted by outward extension of new housing, retail development has similarly sprawled. Continuous strips of retail development, such as that on Cobb Parkway, have developed to service surrounding communities and regional populations. As this sprawl has continued outward, older commercial areas, many of which lack the character and design for long-term sustainability, have fallen out of favor, with newer commercial development occurring farther out. The zoning policies in developing suburban areas have allowed retailers to abandon current locations in favor of newer retail centers farther out. The result is that more retail is being developed than can be supported.

In areas such as Town Center, traffic congestion is a challenge and is likely to become a greater challenge to the success of the existing retail. If current trends continue, the area likely will become choked with traffic, and many patrons will choose to avoid the area in exchange for newer, more convenient locations. Coupled with a general lack of design controls that create an aesthetically appealing environment, the Town Center area will become handicapped in its ability to compete for new retail, housing, and office-oriented employment.

Exacerbating these problems is the short “life” in which much of today’s real estate is built. Most retail centers are developed with an anticipated life of approximately 20 years. Financing for these centers emphasizes immediate short-term returns, and typically assumes the sale of a retail center within 5 to 7 years, at which time the initial investor’s return is achieved. This places a greater emphasis on immediate profit and discourages the creation of high-quality sustainable places that will continue to increase in value over time, returning a greater long-term profit while providing smaller short-term gains.

It is a combination of these factors that has created a number of declining retail corridors throughout metro Atlanta. Although most retail in the Town Center area is thriving, this experience in other suburban retail nodes may be a harbinger of threats that are beginning to face the Town Center core and will likely become a more significant challenge over time. Retail abandonment creates perceptions of social problems and leads to disinvestment, which often impacts surrounding rental and for-sale residential areas. Revitalizing older commercial corridors has become a major issue in the Atlanta area and throughout the entire nation. Anticipating the potential threats and planning accordingly will be critical in preventing the Town Center area from going through this cycle.

2.1.3 Going Forward

Just as retail and metro cores have continued to push outward, following suburban housing growth, urban form is likely to be similarly impacted by several factors over the next several decades, but with different results. For example, the underlying economy is changing – the shift from an industrial economy to a knowledge economy impacts the types of environments we need to create. In the industrial economy, we traded quality of life and environmental protection for economic benefit, and to a certain degree unsustainable development practices resulted in economic growth. Now, in the early stages of the knowledge economy, knowledge workers have greater discretion about where to locate themselves and their companies, and tend to choose high quality of life environments when making those decisions. Quality of life will play a major role in determining which companies want to relocate to or remain in the Atlanta region, and how they select locations within the region.

The demographic shift associated with the aging of the baby boomers is another important trend with the potential to reshape the built environment. While historically suburban areas of metro Atlanta typically have been built to accommodate younger households in their family-forming years, the greatest increases over the next decade will be among persons aged 45 to 64. As people age, the type of housing and housing location they prefer may change. Despite a tremendous number of families moving to Atlanta’s suburbs, Census forecasts indicate that the greatest demographic shift over the next 10 years will be an increase in non-family households. Although there is still a need for research responding to housing preferences, it is likely that many will not have the same suburban or urban housing product preferences as those in larger households with school-age children. It is likely to be a sizable enough shift to create greater opportunities than in the past for alternative development patterns featuring a broader mix of housing types and densities. This creates an opportunity to serve more of those households with housing closer to employment and services, slowing the rate of growth of regional congestion and enabling more commercial properties to be developed in those metro cores that become increasingly mixed-use in character.

Surveys by Robert Charles Lesser and Company of new home buyers in markets across the Southeast suggest significant potential interest in “smart growth” development – more compact, walkable residential communities, with a mix of uses. On average, approximately one-third of the new home market could be attracted to a mixed-use lifestyle residential product were those options more readily available. As part of the analysis for the Town Center area, direct surveys were given to a sample of those who live, work, and/or go to school in the Town Center area, and the market depth for such development appears to be just as high, if not higher, than is typical across the Southeast.

Participants were asked a series of tradeoff questions as to their lifestyle preferences:

· 45 percent indicated they prefer a walkable town center environment over an auto-oriented suburban neighborhood.

· Although these residents and workers state a preference for more “urban” product, many will not follow through with this preference. Regardless, the lack of such walkable, town center environments in the Town Center area points to unmet demand potential in the market.

· 52 percent said they would feel comfortable living in a town center environment.

· 36 percent of respondents said they would prefer to work close to their home in order to avoid a long commute even if it meant living in a slightly smaller home.

This attitude is the exact opposite of the “drive for value” sentiment that has shaped greater Atlanta’s development pattern over the last 15 years or more. Again, this preference is indicative of unmet demand for housing and offices in more convenient locations.

The combination of these economic, demographic, and consumer preference influences indicates an increased opportunity for higher-density and more mixed-use development patterns within our established and emerging urban core areas. Indications are that there is a latent demand for a type of product that we do not presently provide in great enough magnitude to meet the demand. While many households choose conventional residential products (suburban single-family detached housing) because that is what they prefer, others are choosing them because that is the only prototype available.

As Atlanta continues to struggle with transportation woes, general thinking and public policy are increasingly encouraging more mixed-use environments that may better meet the need for sustainable communities.

In summary, the continued evolution of the regional economy, population demographics, consumer preferences, and public policies is likely to favor a more smart-growth-oriented development pattern. Existing development patterns, the ability to finance mixed-use development, and transportation networks do and will continue to serve as barriers to more mixed-use development. Taking maximum advantage of positive trends, indicated market demand, and incentives in place that encourage sustainable development will be critical to the success of the Town Center area in the next decade.

2.1.4 Current Employment Situation

The Atlanta MSA economy was among the strongest in the nation in terms of net new job growth in the 1990s, averaging more than 85,000 new jobs annually. This came to a halt beginning with the technology “bust” of 2000 and through 2002, with metro Atlanta experiencing the national recession more significantly than most American metro areas, in large part due to the high concentration of the telecommunication and hard-hit hospitality and tourism industries. However, the Georgia State Economic Forecasting Center projects a strong regional recovery from 2004 through 2006 (with approximately 31,000 net new jobs in 2004, 52,000 in 2005, and 63,000 in 2006). While these estimates are more moderate than the growth of the 1990s, this increase in growth is positive and will impact job opportunities in key sub-cities and smaller towns in metro Atlanta. The majority of this growth is expected to occur in the city of Atlanta and north of Atlanta, between I-75 and I-85.

Employment growth in Cobb County has also been strong over the past decade, averaging more than 13,500 jobs annually between 1995 and 2000. During that same time period, the Town Center area captured approximately 14 percent of that growth, translating to more than 1,850 jobs annually. Consistent with the MSA, growth in the county has slipped in the past few years but is expected to recover to a stronger rate of employment growth similar to the metro area in the next few years. The county’s growth rate is also expected to be more moderate than the late 1990’s pace.

The same economic cycles of growth, recession, and recovery are likely to continue over the next few decades. The most important consideration, however, is that Atlanta is expected to remain among the top metropolitan areas for employment growth over the next 20 years. ARC is anticipating that the 10-county area will add more than 1 million jobs over the next 20 years. If the Town Center area were to capture a similar portion of that growth, as it did in the 1990s, it would receive 3 percent, or 24,000 net new jobs. Assuming that the Town Center area will capture its “fair share,” the area will experience growth of 1.2 percent, or an addition of nearly 10,000 jobs. The potential for additional job growth is discussed in more detail in the office market summary.

Enhancements to the transportation network are critical to capturing a significant portion of the growth and will help prevent a plateau in economic growth in the Town Center area.

As indicated in the graph below and indicative of the land uses, employment in the Town Center CID has been dominated by retail trade and wholesale trade.

Figure 3. Employment Mix, Town Center Area and Atlanta Region

Retail trade has been, and is expected to continue to be, an important aspect of the Town Center area’s economy. However, the sector is not capturing its “fair share” of growth, and data suggests that the Town Center area is diversifying away from a reliance on retail trade. During the last decade, the following sectors were growing at the fastest rate and capturing more than their “fair share” of growth:

Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

Construction

Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate

Although most of these sectors still remain a small portion of employment in Town Center, their strong rate of growth suggests that the area is increasingly functioning as an office and business park employment core. This may be indicative of the area emerging as a stronger office location during the next large employment wave in the metro area.

2.1.5 Demographic Overview

Currently, approximately 4,500 households reside in the Town Center area,[1] representing 2.8 percent of households in the north Cobb County study area (defined as a 5-mile radius from the intersection of Barrett Parkway and I-75). Most recent projections suggest that the rate of new household growth within the Town Center area in the next five years will be similar to the previous two years, but will be half the rate of the 1990s. This projection may be conservative because it may not account for new infill development occurring in and around the study area. Nevertheless, the Town Center area is expected to grow at a faster rate than the Atlanta MSA and Cobb County.

The Town Center area does not have a large supply of housing. Most of the available housing is new, garden apartment communities or in older, single-family neighborhoods. Twelve apartment communities account for more than 3,000 apartment units, and 66 percent of all housing in the Town Center area is renter occupied. This is the inverse of the Atlanta region but is likely appropriate, given the concentration of retail jobs and other employment in the Town Center area as well as the proximity to Kennesaw State University. There is fairly significant new, single-family housing activity nearby and a recent influx of new infill townhome communities. These communities are primarily targeting first-time homebuyers and those moving out of area apartments to take advantage of historically low interest rates.

The proliferation of renters within the Town Center area is reflected directly in the demographic characteristics of the core. The Town Center area is characterized by younger and less affluent households than Cobb County overall. According to demographer Claritas, Inc. and based on projections from the 2000 Census, just less than half (45 percent) of households in the core area have incomes below $50,000, compared to Cobb County overall, which has 38 percent of households in this income range. Similarly, 49 percent of households in the Town Center area are under the age of 35, as compared to only 22 percent of Cobb County households in that same age cohort.

It is worth noting that respondents to the survey – generally more employees than residents in the area – are older and more affluent than Cobb County’s population overall. As illustrated in the following charts, the respondent group has a higher concentration of households earning $50,000 plus annually and those age 35 to 54.

Figure 4. Household Income Distribution

Figure 5. Educational Attainment

2.1.6 Jobs to Housing Balance

The strong employment growth occurring in the Town Center area and the relatively limited housing located directly in the core have contributed to a growing imbalance between jobs and housing. This imbalance may be slightly overstated given the prevalence of housing just outside the core and the recent introduction of new townhome development, which is not accounted for in this data. Nevertheless, the distance between where people live and where they work and/or shop exacerbates traffic congestion, and data suggests that the gap will continue to widen over the next decade.

As shown in the following chart, Town Center residents typically commute a much shorter distance (in time) than Cobb County residents overall, while Town Center employees tend to commute a much longer distance than the average worker in the metro area. Thirty-four percent are commuting more than 45 minutes, compared to 24 percent in the metro area overall.

Figure 6. Roundtrip Commute Times

As the following graph indicates, the Town Center area now has a jobs-to-housing ratio of 5.5, meaning the core has five-and-a-half times more jobs than households. This is up significantly from 1990, when the ratio was only 2.5. For reference, the Atlanta MSA averages approximately 1.5 jobs per household.

Figure 7. Relationship of Employment to Households

The Town Center area is not alone in this high jobs-to-housing ratio. Long-term, addressing the housing imbalance occurring in the core will be critical to the Town Center area’s overall growth. At a minimum, not letting the ratio become more imbalanced should be a goal. Providing new workforce housing opportunities in the core, both rental and for sale, will be critical to this effort.

Consumer research provides some sense of the “pent up” demand for housing created by the imbalance of jobs to housing. Approximately 26 percent of Town Center area employees would be somewhat or very likely to move into a home in the area if their desired housing type and price were available. This finding is similar to that of a consumer research study for the Cumberland-Galleria area, where 22 percent of employees would strongly consider living in the Cumberland-Galleria area. For more detailed information on housing preference, please see Exhibits E through J in the appendix.

2.2 Land Use Analysis

Understanding how land is used in the study area and how it can be used in the future provides a basis for determining possible mixed-use opportunities and housing opportunities. A windshield survey, taken in May 2004, identified existing land uses in the study area. For the purpose of this study, land uses are divided into several categories, as identified in Table 2.

Table 2. Land Uses Within the Study Area

Land Use	Acres	Percent of Total
Institutional	28	4.44%
Multifamily	37	5.91%
Office Park	35	5.60%
Retail	185	29.27%
Service Commercial	48	7.57%
Single-Family	47	7.41%
Single-Family Attached	8	1.28%
Undeveloped	244	38.51%
Total	632

Parcel level data is not available; therefore, the acreage and location of the land uses are approximate. The Existing Land Use figure on the following page provides a spatial view of land use.

The SuPurb study area contains an inordinate amount of undeveloped land (39 percent). While this bodes well when considering development opportunities and the ability to “create” a specific identity, it also delineates the need for land use policy that can guide future development in the manner desired by the community. More than 29 percent of the study area is occupied by retail uses. However, this percentage also includes the large expanse of parking areas that surround the retail centers, including Town Center Mall. In addition, as stated in the economic overview, the area is saturated with retail uses.

Although there is limited residential development, there is a mix of types. The following are included within the study area:

Single Family (Hidden Forest Subdivision)

Townhomes

Apartment Complexes

Noticeably missing in the study area are “public” spaces, which can be anything from small corner parks, to linear parks, to large open spaces meant for gatherings. All 39 percent of the undeveloped land is privately owned. The large parcels of undeveloped land are located north of Big Shanty Road, at Chastain Road, and along I‑75. The primary natural area in the study area is located along Noonday Creek.

2.2.1 Office Market Overview

The Town Center area is included within the Northwest/I-75 office submarket. As of mid-year 2004, the Northwest/I-75 submarket and Central Perimeter submarket are the two largest office markets in the Atlanta region. Overall, the Northwest submarket has 17 percent of existing office square footage, or more than 27 million square feet. Currently and indicative of the soft economy, the submarket has an overall vacany rate of 19.4 percent, generally in line with the greater Atlanta region (20.1 percent).

The Northwest/I-75 submarket is dominated by the Cumberland-Galleria core but is increasingly experiencing growth up I-75 toward Town Center. Similar to most regional cores, Cumberland-Galleria has had a difficult three years, experiencing negative office space absorption. The long-term prospects for Cumberland-Galleria, however, are very positive, which has mixed implications for Town Center’s future growth. Historically, the plight of closer-in cores has fueled the growth of more distant suburban cores, for example, the growth of the North Fulton core area as Perimeter Center struggled with traffic congestion. In the near term, Cumberland-Galleria’s continued growth may inhibit the growth of office development at Town Center. However, the long-term trend may be the continued evolution of Town Center to more of an office employment center.

The Kennesaw/Town Center area[2] is comprised of 71 office buildings consisting of just more than 3.7 million square feet, of which 3.2 million is occupied (12 percent of the Northwest/I-75 submarket). With only a 13.6 percent vacancy rate and positive net absorption in the past year and a half, the Kennesaw/Town Center area appears to be outperforming the Northwest/I-75 submarket overall. Generally speaking, office space in the Kennesaw/Town Center area offers a better value than other areas of the Northwest submarket, with average lease rates of approximately $18.50 per square foot, compared to $19.30 in Cumberland-Galleria but generally in line with Atlanta overall ($18.58 average).

Kennesaw/Town Center currently functions as a “niche” office market. Tenants generally choose to locate in this area either to be near a specific business or because it is proximate to a decision maker’s home. The Town Center area does not generally compete for office tenants at the same level as closer-in or larger office cores, such as Cumberland, Perimiter Center or GA 400. One very encouraging finding from consumer research is that those who work in Town Center are generally very happy with where they are. When asked their preferred office location, Town Center scored a 4.2 (on a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being the best), with the second most favored location, Alpharetta/North Point, scoring a 2.2 (see Exhibit L in the appendix).

Initial Outlook: In the near-term, demand for new office space should continue to gradually recover from the languid pace of the recession. Long-term, given the volume of employment growth anticipated in the Atlanta region, there will likely be growing opportunities for Town Center to begin capturing a greater portion of regional employment growth. In order to do so, more sustainable development practices will need to be put in place. This includes creating a stronger identity both in general and for office, infilling housing, and addressing traffic and mobility threats.

Office Demand Potential: To capitalize on the emerging trends of real estate and continue its rate of employment growth, the Town Center area must position itself to compete on a regional level and create an environment that is aesthetically appealing.

To quantify the extent to which Town Center may be able to capitalize on these trends, we conducted a statistical demand analysis, taking into consideration regional job growth, directions of growth, the Northwest submarket’s capture of the growth, and the ability of Town Center to compete within the Northwest submarket.

The Atlanta Regional Commission projects that metro Atlanta will add 1.5 million net new jobs over the next 25 years. Taking into account both historic and recent absorptions for the Northwest submarket and assuming an aggressive and proactive strategy to attract growth in the area, it is predicted that the Northwest submarket will attract approximately 17.4 percent of the metro Atlanta job growth, or its “fair share” of growth. It is further assumed that the Kennesaw/Town Center submarket can capture its “fair share” of growth in the near term (19 percent) and increase its market share over time as Cumberland and other closer-in locations are built out (increasing to 25 percent of demand in the northwest corridor) and that the large majority (85 percent) of office demand in the Kennesaw/Town Center submarket will occur in the Town Center area. The result is demand potential for 2.7 million additional square feet of office space over the next 20 years. Although this is a significant amount of space, it is only assuming net new demand for approximately 80,000 square feet annually over the next five-year period (2005 to 2010), increasing to 200,000 square feet annually between 2020 and 2025.

This relatively strong growth potential assumes that proactive steps will be taken to correct traffic congestion in the Town Center area and that the general aesthetics of the study area will continue to be improved. In addition, developers need incentives to help reposition parcels that have begun to under perform. In the absense of proactive involvement, the study area could easily lose these new jobs to greenfield developments outside of the study area.

2.2.2 Retail Market Overview

At this point in time, retail is the predominant use in the Town Center area, and the mall generally functions as the focal point for the CID. With nearly 8.6 million square feet of retail space and another 460,000 under construction, the Kennesaw/Northwest Cobb submarket (as defined by Dorey’s Retail Guide) has a vacancy rate of 8 percent, which is below average for retail cores on the north side of Atlanta. The vacancy rate may be somewhat understated for the study area due to space that is vacant but leased, a strategy that many “big-box” retailers use to keep out future competition even though consumer demand does not support the excess space.

While most of the retail in the area is performing well relative to regional comparisons, it is likely that some retail will evolve into other land uses in the long-term. For example, some of the strip centers and even some of the big-box spaces are likely “interim uses” when observed through a long-term lens, representing excess retail space that will not be supported indefinitely. But overall, rents in the submarket are fairly healthy, averaging $12 to $16 per square foot, representing the fourth highest rents in the metro area. These rents are just behind Buckhead, Midtown, and North Fulton – the premiere retail locations. Rents in the Town Center CID average $17 to $24 per square foot. The reasons for the higher rents are the proximity to the mall and the greater shopper traffic that it drives. The mall itself seems to be performing well. At the completion of the master plan for the CID, sales per square foot averaged $395, placing Town Center Mall in the upper decile of malls in the Southeast and among the top perfoming malls in the Atlanta region.[3]

Retail in the Town Center CID area generally can be characterized as a regional mall surrounded by strip malls and power centers, all of which have more of a regional than a local-serving focus. There are unique stores, such as Galyans, as well as restaurants and movie theaters that draw shoppers and patrons from throughout the I-75 north corridor. The retail is highly dependent on nightime and weekend traffic for demand.

Most of the retail centers were built in the late 1980s and early 1990s, feature “could be anywhere” retail architecture, and have ample parking (averaging more than five spaces per 1,000 square feet of retail) that serves the stores well during Christmas and other high-traffic shopping days. The retail currently lacks a strong sense of place and the pedestrian orientation being employed in new, town village retail concepts that provides shoppers the ability to walk throughout the entire development. Outside of the area, The Avenues at East Cobb has been highly successful in competing with Cumberland Mall for tenants. The Forum on Highway 141 in Norcross has been touted as a local example of effectively providing the shopping experience that many seek.

Consumer research indicates significant demand for more lifestyle and entertainment retail. As illustrated in Figure 8, sidewalk cafes and a live music venue are the most sought after “retail” uses in the Town Center area.

Figure 8. Preferred Retail

Initial Outlook: Retail in the Town Center area is strong but will need to “reinvent” itself in order to maintain its competitive edge and not be bypassed for a new regional mall or different retail concepts. Some strategies to help “reinvent” the area are as follows:

· Create a more walkable and connected retail experience at the mall, within mixed-use residential villages, and at the proposed Bus Rapid Transit station.

· Pysically improve the character and appearance of existing retail to provide a greater sense of location and to create a stronger destination. This could be done by creating a more village-type center, comparable to The Avenues at East Cobb or Vinings Jubilee, or by opening up the mall to create a stronger “streetscape” feel as illustrated in the development plan.

· Increase employment opportunities and housing in the CID to create additional market audiences for retail and perhaps a greater balance between weekend and weekday demand. This would also create demand for more local-serving retail that is more supportive of “village” retail.

Demand Outlook: Currently there is no unmet demand for retail in the study area. With a regional mall and regional retail core, there is far more retail than can be supported by the local population. Retailers’ success hinges on those within an 8- to 10-mile area coming to Town Center for their major shopping needs. A risk for regional retail is a new regional mall farther out on I-575 and I-75, lessening demand in Town Center, a trend we have seen play out for Gwinnett Place Mall, Mall of Georgia, and Discover Mills.

The only additional demand potential for retail is for new retail formats, as indicated by consumer research. As more residential development is introduced, there will likely be support for additional neighborhood-serving retail such as a drug store and in the longer-term an additional grocery store.

2.2.3 For-Sale Residential Market Overview

The Town Center area is located in Atlanta’s Favored Quarter and is within the region’s largest concentration of executive housing. The Town Center area (defined as zip codes 30066 and 30144) has been characterized by new housing in the $100,000 to $150,000 range and increasingly (in the past two years) by new housing in the $150,000 to $200,000 range. With the introduction of Steve McCauley’s Ridenour and other higher-end communities, there has been an increase in demonstrated demand for housing priced over $250,000 in the past few years.

Until recently, new home activity in the area was almost entirely detached housing. The two zip codes averaged approximately 50 new, attached home sales annually, typically in the $150,000 to $200,000 range. Townhome product in the Atlanta area has been rapidly replacing entry-level, single-family housing and has been successful in nearby and analogous locations. Over the past year and a half, this trend has become evident in Town Center as well. The large majority of builders active in the Atlanta townhome market are building townhomes in the Town Center area. Priced from the $140,000s to the $180,000s, these townhome communities are a price alternative to single-family homes and are selling anywhere from 5 to 10 homes per month, primarily to first-time homebuyers.

We have also seen the introduction of four-plex ranches priced from $190,000 that target the growing retiree demographic. Retiree buyers like the convenience of the location, which provides access and proximity to shopping and amenities. The proposed senior healthcare facility will likely make the Town Center area even more attractive for retiree buyers.

Initial Outlook: There will be continued demand for single-family homes in and around the CID. It is likely that prices will continue to rise as prices in Marietta and other closer-in locations escalate. More value-oriented, attached (townhomes as demonstrated and condominiums, which have yet to be demonstrated) housing is a viable, near-term opportunity for additional housing in the Town Center area. Long-term, housing will likely be supportable in mixed-use environments.

As discussed previously, consumer research suggests a potentially significant unmet demand for housing in the area. Although many potential buyers seek a single-family home, there is a relatively strong market for lofts, condominiums, and townhomes.

Figure 9. Types of Housing to Increase Likelihood of Living in the SuPurb

As discussed previously, just under half of potential buyers are willing to make tradeoffs in order to be close to work and/or to live in a unique environment, which may increase the potential demand for lofts, condominiums, and townhomes.

Demand Outlook: Based on projected demographic trends, assuming job growth, and based on consumer research on potential buyers’ feedback, relatively strong demand for new housing in the Town Center area is anticipated. Land prices are such that single-family neighborhood development will likely be prohibitive, and new residential development will be focused on townhomes in the near term with growing demand for condominiums, lofts, and even some live-work units.

Attached product will continue to be a price alternative to new, single-family homes. As such, the majority of demand will be for product from the low to mid $100,000s to the mid $200,000s. Even without a major redevelopment plan, we estimate demand potential for up to 100 new units annually over the next five years. This demand potential likely increases to 135 annually with master-planned development, as proposed in the development plan.

2.2.4 Rental Apartment Market Overview

Since the opening of Town Center Mall, the TCA has been a growing area for rental apartment communities. Most of the apartment communities were built in the latter half of the 1990s and feature attractive, garden-style construction. In the near term, the rental market likely will continue to suffer from low interest rates and the subsequent financial incentive to become a homeowner. Longer term, and even over the next five years, apartments will continue to be a viable land use in the TCA.

Despite the overall softness in the apartment market, rents and occupancies in the Town Center area remain fairly stable. Consumer research suggests continued demand for relatively strong rents with 70 percent of respondents seeking an apartment for greater than $750 per month.

Demand Outlook: Long-term demand for rental apartments will likely remain strong in the Town Center area, especially in light of continuing employment growth in the area. Long term, there will be greater opportunity to provide somewhat more upscale, higher-density apartments in a mixed-use setting.

Robert Charles Lesser and Company demand estimates suggest that the Town Center area could support up to 700 additional apartments annually over the next five years. Much of this demand (70 percent) is emanating from existing renters in turnover, while 30 percent is from renters new to the area. With the introduction of unique, mixed-use development concepts, the Town Center area could have the potential to support up to 850 new apartments every five years. This demand potential likely exceeds the development potential and therefore suggests potential for some higher-end, lifestyle apartment development.

2.3 Zoning

Current zoning regulations in the Town Center area do not support the type of development envisioned by the community during the LCI process. In fact, existing zoning districts are mostly segregated by use and allow conventional suburban style densities contrary to the densities appropriate to a regional activity center. Cobb County is already in the process of revising zoning regulations with a proposed “Redevelopment Overlay District” that allows a mix of higher-density residential, office, and retail uses. The following are key highlights of the existing zoning in the study area as they relate to the SuPurb study goals (see the figure on the following page for a spatial view of existing zoning):

· The Hidden Forest subdivision is currently zoned R-20, which allows low-density, single-family dwelling units.

· Parcels along the periphery of the mall are presently zoned General Commercial (GC), which allows for commercial uses but does not allow multifamily residential.

· The area south of Big Shanty Road, east of retail uses along Busbee Drive, is currently Community Retail Commercial (CRC), which limits residential choices.

· Parcels along Chastain Road are zoned either Commercial (GC or OS) or Residential (RM-12), neither of which allows for a mixture of uses. Similarly, parcels along Barrett Parkway are zoned GC.

2.4 Transportation

Transportation is a critical element in determining how an area functions – whether it is automobile related or pedestrian oriented. The project team inventoried the existing transportation network with regard to roadways, sidewalks, bicycle facilities, transit, and parking.

2.4.1 Roadways

The street pattern in the TCA SuPurb is suburban with a pseudo-grid pattern. Major arterial corridors that carry most of the traffic entering and leaving the area include Barrett Parkway, Chastain Road, I -75, and I-575. Collector roads include George Busbee Parkway, Busbee Parkway, and Big Shanty Road. These roadways provide access and traffic circulation within the area as well as to and from the residential, commercial, and industrial areas of the CID. See the figure on the following page for an overview of the transportation network. This network is controlled by limited movement east-west and north-south. The only east-west connections from the study area to the surrounding area are Chastain Road and Barrett Parkway. The only north-south connector is Busbee Parkway.

Two interstate freeways help carry large volumes of traffic to and from the SuPurb area. Both I-75 and I-575 have interchanges at Barrett Parkway and Chastain Road. Additional access to the interstate is planned via proposed HOV lanes on Big Shanty Road and a BRT access road to the proposed BRT station (more information is provided later in this report for the proposed BRT station). Preliminary engineering is under way to extend Big Shanty Road across the interstate, which will provide an additional east-west connection.